Bridging the watershed–urban disconnect: The interplay of risk perception, self-efficacy, and institutional trust in flood preparedness in Pakistan

Saeed Ahmad; Shahnaz Bhutto; Abdul Rasool Khoso; Khansa Maryam

doi:10.64866/j.ijdscr.2026.10027

Authors

Saeed Ahmad Department of Sociology, School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing, China Author https://orcid.org/0009-0003-5270-6953
Shahnaz Bhutto Department of Sociology, School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing, China Author
Abdul Rasool Khoso Department of Sociology, School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing, China Author
Khansa Maryam Department of Sociology, University of Okara, Pakistan Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.64866/j.ijdscr.2026.10027

Keywords:

Flood preparedness; risk perception; self-efficacy; institutional trust; watershed disconnect; Pakistan

Abstract

Purpose: This study examines how perceptions of flood causality, self-efficacy, and institutional trust interact to shape household preparedness in a flood-prone downstream community in Pakistan.

Methodology: A sequential explanatory mixed-methods design was employed in Taunsa Sharif, combining a household survey (n = 350) with in-depth interviews (n = 15). Quantitative data were analyzed using hierarchical regression and mediation analysis; qualitative data were examined through reflexive thematic analysis.

Findings: Educational attainment strongly predicts recognition of watershed-scale flood drivers (72.5% among bachelor's-educated vs 9.1% among uneducated respondents). Self-efficacy (β = 0.38) and institutional trust (β = 0.23) are the strongest direct predictors of preparedness. Mediation analysis indicates that self-efficacy partially accounts for the relationship between watershed understanding and adaptive action. Qualitative findings illuminate how "flood fatigue" erodes personal agency while institutional distrust creates governance traps that perpetuate inaction.

Originality: This study integrates Social-Ecological Systems theory, Protection Motivation Theory, and Social Cognitive Theory within a unified framework, demonstrating that an interdependent triad of watershed knowledge, perceived agency, and institutional trust governs flood preparedness. Findings underscore the necessity of integrated strategies combining risk communication with psychosocial capacity-building and governance reforms.

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